NCAA Tournament picks: Can Alabama hold up under the pressure?
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NCAA Selection Sunday: Brackets, analysis, predictions and more
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Selection Sunday as brackets are revealed for the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments.
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Predicting the 2023 NCAA Tournament:
Final Four
▪ Arizona. Alabama’s reliance on three-point shooting — No. 4 in the nation in trey attempts (29.4 a game) but No. 195 in three-point accuracy (33.4) — will prove problematic over the course of a one-and-done tournament, clearing the way for the Wildcats to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2001.
▪ Marquette. In the years since Shaka Smart coached VCU on its improbable run from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011, his NCAA tourney record is 2-8. This year, Smart rediscovers his March Madness mojo.
▪ Texas. Rodney Terry has a viable chance to complete “the Steve Fisher” — in other words, win the NCAA title as an interim head coach.
▪ Gonzaga. If UCLA’s roster were healthy and intact, the Bruins would be the pick from the West Region — but it’s not. As a No. 3 seed, Mark Few’s Bulldogs are flying beneath the radar this season.
National champion
▪ Texas will beat Arizona. The Longhorns cutting down the nets in Houston would be a slice of burnt Orange heaven.
Kentucky teams
▪ Kentucky. John Calipari’s No. 6 seed Wildcats will defeat old friend Bryce Hopkins and No. 11 Providence in the East Region round of 64, then upset No. 3 seed Kansas State in the round of 32. The Wildcats’ up-and-down season will end with a loss to No. 2 seed Marquette in the round of 16.
▪ Northern Kentucky. The No. 16 seed in the Midwest, Coach Darrin Horn’s Norse — led by in-state products Marques Warrick (Henry Clay), Sam Vinson (Fort Thomas Highlands) and Trevon Faulkner (Mercer County) — will put up a fight but fall to No. 1 Houston.
Upset specials
▪ No. 13 seed Kent State will upset No. 4 Indiana in the Midwest Region.
▪ No. 13 seed Louisiana will upset No. 4 Tennessee in the East Region.
▪ No. 12 seed Charleston will upset No. 5 San Diego State in the South Region.
Bracket breakdown
1. If you average the NET Rankings for the top four seeds in each region, the toughest region is the West (average NET of top four seeds of 6.5), followed by the East (11), South (13.3) and Midwest (15).
2. Two SEC teams, based on their NET Rankings, have reason to feel they were slighted in their seeding. Tennessee is No. 4 overall in the NET but the No. 4 seed in the East. Texas A&M is No. 18 in the NET but the No. 7 seed in the Midwest.
3. It has become accepted wisdom that the teams most likely to win the national championship can be found from among those ranked in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency in the Kenpom Ratings.
This season, there are only four such teams — Houston (No. 11 adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 4 adjusted defensive efficiency), Alabama (No. 19, No. 4), Connecticut (No. 6, No. 18) and Texas (No. 18, No. 11).
There are four other teams that are relatively close to “dual qualifying” status — UCLA (No. 25, No. 1), Purdue (No. 7, No. 26), Kansas (No. 29, No. 7) and Creighton (No. 28, No. 15).
4. With Kentucky and Northern Kentucky each in the field of 68, this is the 29th time in the past 30 NCAA tourneys that the commonwealth has had multiple entrants in the men’s tournament. The only exception was 2021, when Morehead State was the state of Kentucky’s only entrant.
5. Injuries have created uncertainty for a number of top seeds. Houston star Marcus Sasser missed the AAC Tournament finals with a groin injury, while a back problem sidelined Kansas forward Kevin McCullar for the Big 12 tourney finals.
UCLA played the Pac-12 Tournament championship game without starters Adem Bona (shoulder) and Jaylen Clark (torn Achilles). Meanwhile, Tennessee has lost point guard Zakai Zeigler (torn ACL) for the season.
This story was originally published March 12, 2023 at 10:23 PM.
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