On paper, I like Kentucky basketball’s NCAA tourney draw. On the court, not so much.

Here’s the thing: As the No. 6 seed in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament, Kentucky’s basketball team is fully capable of winning a pair of Greensboro games and hopping a plane to the Big Apple.

Here’s another thing: Kentucky is fully capable of suffering a first-round knockout for the second consecutive year.

You know. I know it. John Calipari knows it.

“We can beat anybody,” the UK coach said late Friday night/early Saturday morning after his Cats lost to Vanderbilt in an SEC Tournament quarterfinal game in Nashville. “Hate to tell you, we can get beat by anybody, too.”

Sorry to say, I think the latter is more likely.

Call me negative. Call me cynical. Call me someone who doesn’t know a single thing about basketball, but my prediction is that these inconsistent Cats will see their roller coaster ride of a season end either Friday or Sunday in North Carolina.

Could Calipari’s club prove me wrong and win back-to-back games in the heart of Tobacco Road to punch a ticket to Madison Square Garden? Of course it could.

After all, No. 11 seed Providence, UK’s Friday night foe, enters the Big Dance on a three-game losing streak after falling to Xavier (94-89), Seton Hall (82-58), and then Connecticut (73-66) in the Big East Tournament. No. 3 seed Kansas State is just 24th in KenPom’s rankings compared to Kentucky’s No. 28. And K-State’s first-round foe, 14th-seeded Montana State, is No. 110 in KenPom, including 170th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Actually, if Kentucky could find a way to earn consecutive wins on opening weekend, it can beat both No. 2 seed Marquette and No. 1 seed Purdue in New York. Neither the Big East (champion: Marquette) nor the Big Ten (champion: Purdue) offered the night-after-night competition and ridiculous athleticism the SEC had to offer this season.

On paper, I like Kentucky’s draw. On the court, not so much.

The reason is simple. These Cats can’t be trusted.

Yes, I know they beat Tennessee twice. They beat Texas A&M. They won at Arkansas. They’re 6-7 against teams in the tournament. They played No. 1 West Region seed Kansas tough before losing by nine points at Rupp Arena. And they continually showed enough moxie to rebound from losses, a trait that should come in handy considering the 80-73 setback to the Commodores last Friday.

I also know they lost to South Carolina, Georgia and twice in two weeks to Vanderbilt. Only the Commodores came close to making the 68-team draw.

And I also know the Cats are 71st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. (Providence is 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency, by the way.) They have trouble keeping guard-oriented teams from beating them off the bounce. They’re a good but not great three-point shooting team. And they are 237th in the nation in free-throw percentage at 70.3 percent.

Those are not the usual characteristics of a team about to make noise in the Big Dance.

Calipari knows this, too. He’s a Hall of Fame coach who can read the tea leaves. It’s why he changed the narrative after Sunday’s Selection Show. He announced that Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware are now captains. (Calipari never chooses captains.) He said only players healthy enough to practice Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday — all three days — would be in the starting lineup for Friday’s opening game. He said every team is now 0-0.

Maybe that will work. Maybe Oscar Tshiebwe grabs every rebound and Antonio Reeves makes every shot and Jacob Toppin is a player possessed and Cason Wallace lets everyone know he’s a lead-pipe NBA Draft lottery pick. Maybe Calipari works his mind-over-matter psychological magic for another unlikely tournament run.

“I got to get these guys playing like we have this year to where we’re walking into the tournament in that mindset of, look, here we go together, let’s do something crazy,” Calipari said Friday. “I got to get them to that.”

Maybe. But after a season of ups-and-downs with this Kentucky basketball team, I’m going to have to see it to believe it.

This story was originally published March 12, 2023 at 9:49 PM.

John Clay

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-472-4218

John Clay is a sports columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader. A native of Central Kentucky, he covered UK football from 1987 until being named sports columnist in 2000. He has covered 20 Final Fours and 42 consecutive Kentucky Derbys. Support my work with a digital subscription