Kentucky is bowl eligible again. Is a first-time destination in store this year?
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Its loss against Tennessee probably squashed Kentucky’s chances of playing in Florida for a third straight December, but the Southeastern Conference’s overall dip in quality assures that it won’t play in the conference’s “lesser” bowls, and could result in the Wildcats visiting a first-time destination.
Kentucky became eligible for a bowl for the fourth consecutive season with Saturday’s 50-7 win over Tennessee Martin at Kroger Field.
As many as half of the SEC’s 14 teams could sit out the postseason, and at least four will certainly stay home. Missouri, which is one win from eligibility and appealing a bowl ban, would make it five guaranteed ineligible teams if its ban is upheld by the NCAA.
Assuming that a minimum of three SEC teams are selected to participate in the New Year’s Six bowls — which seems likely, based on the current College Football Playoff rankings — that would leave only six SEC teams to fill seven bowl slots before the conference’s secondary affiliates — the Birmingham Bowl and Independence Bowl — even get a sniff. Sorry, Shreveport.
The Wildcats have never played in the Belk Bowl or Texas Bowl. The Belk Bowl kicks off against an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent at noon on Dec. 31 in Charlotte, N.C.; the Texas Bowl is a 6:45 p.m. EST kickoff against a Big 12 foe in Houston on Dec. 27. Analysts’ projections have tied Kentucky to each, but the Belk Bowl seems to be the most popular choice.
Would Kentucky fans travel in droves to Houston to see the Wildcats take on a Big 12 opponent the day before the men’s basketball game against Louisville? Those factors are probably why the Belk Bowl feels more fitting, between the two bowls.
Both of those bowls are part of a “pool of six” — in addition to the Gator Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl and Outback Bowl — with which the SEC is affiliated whose stature are considered more or less the same. The teams under consideration, the conference and the bowl work together to determine placement; a fresh invitee is one factor they’ll consider.
Bowl guesswork
Let’s start from here: The following postulation is working from the perspective that Kentucky would be the second-least attractive bowl-eligible program from the SEC; despite losing the head-to-head this year it’d have a leg up on Mississippi State, if the Bulldogs get eligible.
For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume Florida is shut out of the New Year’s Six (if the CFP takes two SEC teams, it could conceivably finish high enough in the rankings to earn a bid). That would make the Gators a shoe-in for the Citrus Bowl, in which UK played last year, and which has selection priority over the “pool of six.”
The Outback Bowl, played on New Year’s Day in Tampa, Fla., isn’t technically off the table for Kentucky, but one of either Auburn (another Citrus Bowl possibility) or Texas A&M — is more likely to end up in that spot; UK would have had a stronger case to be in the mix had it managed to pick up a yard and beaten Tennessee two weeks ago.
Kentucky and the Volunteers could finish the season with identical records — 7-5 — despite the latter’s dreadful start to 2019. UT has failed to make a bowl the last two years, presumably meaning there would be appetite for fans to travel should it become eligible, and its historical brand would be marketable. The Vols, or whoever remains between Auburn and Texas A&M, will likely get the trip to the Gator Bowl on Jan. 2.
A recent trip to the Music City Bowl (2017) might weaken the Cats’ chances of going to Nashville, but it’s worth recalling that Kentucky made back-to-back trips to the Music City Bowl in 2006 and 2007. It has played in the game more times than any other program (five), so it can’t be ruled out. Plus, one need only look as far back as last weekend’s game at Vanderbilt to see that UK fans are willing to have a good time just three hours from Lexington.
UK has played in the Liberty Bowl just once, following the 2008 season. It defeated East Carolina, 25-19. The long layoff between appearances might swell the chances of Kentucky ending up in Memphis, but Mississippi State would make more geographical sense.
When will we know?
Kentucky’s bowl destination won’t be known by the school until Dec. 1, at the earliest. That’s the day after the Governor’s Cup game against Louisville.
The final release of the College Football Playoff rankings is Dec. 8, which is when an official announcement will be made. The rankings shouldn’t have too much bearing on the Cats’ placement, but it’s possible that the SEC could wait and see if Florida ends up in a New Year’s Six bowl before having its other teams assigned.
Notes
▪ If Kentucky does end up in the Belk Bowl, it will have the distinction of playing in the “last one.” The bowl itself will continue to operate after this season but Belk, the title sponsor, announced Wednesday that it will no longer sponsor the game after this season.
This story was originally published November 23, 2019 at 6:40 PM.
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