Kentucky basketball mailbag: Will Cal make changes? What’s the future for recruiting?
Time for part three of this week’s Kentucky mailbag series.
A big thank you to all the Herald-Leader readers (and Twitter followers) who took the time to ask some great questions about the present and future of the Wildcats’ basketball program, and make sure to check out part one and part two from earlier in the week for discussion related to possible offseason additions and UK’s outlook for next season.
Part three deals largely with Coach John Calipari’s immediate future with the Cats, as well as some recruiting topics.
Is Coach Cal open-minded about changing his dribble-drive offense? Is he open-minded to change in general: using a press, using a zone, shooting more threes, etc.?
Kentucky fans clearly want to see something different after a 9-16 season and an offense that was difficult to watch throughout (and has, at many times, been difficult to watch for much of the past few years).
Obviously, the only person who really knows whether John Calipari is open to some kind of noticeable change is John Calipari, who did seem willing to at least take an inventory of things with his remarks on his final radio show following the season last month. In that appearance, Calipari repeatedly called the season “unacceptable” and said he would have to “evaluate everything” related to his program this offseason. He also specifically mentioned at one point that perhaps, to a certain degree, overall skill and shooting ability should be as much of a consideration as the length and athleticism that he most often looks for in his players.
Will fans see any real change next season?
Probably not to the degree that many are hoping.
I really don’t see Calipari moving too far away from his offensive style of attacking the basket — at least, not yet — though it does seem like, with the right personnel, he’d be more willing to allow his guys to let fly from three-point range. Despite Calipari’s continued public calls for some of his players to shoot open shots this past season, the Cats were 255th in the country in made three-pointers per game. They didn’t take very many, and they didn’t make very many.
Calipari’s tendency seems like it’s always going to be more geared toward having his guys get to the basket and either (he hopes) make a shot or grab the offensive rebound, but if UK’s roster next season features the likes of Kellan Grady, Davion Mintz, Dontaie Allen and Nolan Hickman — with room for other three-point possibilities — you’d think Kentucky will be shooting more from deep. Obviously, having a point guard that can break down a defense and utilizing lineups that can actually space the floor will play a big factor in that.
Defensively, it’s difficult to envision Calipari ever using a press for any extended period of time, and his distaste for zone is well-documented. Don’t think that’s ever going to change.
In his defense, one of his major objectives is getting players prepared for the NBA, and sticking them in a zone runs counter to that. He also prides himself on finding and developing guys who play and project as gritty defenders. He likes that style of play and he clearly enjoys coaching that type of player. (And he’s had some really good defensive teams and individual defenders here).
As a brief aside, and another point in his defense here: the visual of players getting lost on defense on a particular possession and those inevitable instances of an opposing player (or entire team) going off from three-point range on a particular night will always stick out in fans’ minds, but the truth is that Calipari’s teams — even the not-so-great ones — have almost always been efficient defensively. All that length and athleticism simply makes it tougher for opponents to get up good shots. It might not make for pretty basketball, but it’s effective from a defensive standpoint.
Back to the question. How noticeable will the changes next season be? The best guess is “not very,” at least from a philosophical standpoint. The hope on Calipari’s end will be that he has a point guard who can break down a defense — whether that be Hickman or Mintz or Devin Askew or someone else — and get results with the same style that has led Kentucky to a ton of wins over the past decade. If they have capable shooters, that action at the point should lead to open shots, and Calipari has shown in the past — with Jamal Murray and Malik Monk and Brandon Knight and James Young and others — that he’s fine letting shooters shoot.
Wholesale changes to a coaching philosophy don’t happen overnight, and one bad season isn’t going to lead to anything drastic. Calipari probably firmly believes that — if the NCAA Tournament had been played last season — his Cats would have advanced to the 2020 Final Four, and all of the current criticisms would be muted. Maybe he’s right. We’ll never know.
Calipari has shown throughout his career that he’s not afraid to take a chance on a change in philosophy — whether that be in recruiting or on the court — to get better results. But there still seems to be a belief on his end that all of this talk of “modern offense” is something of a fad, and it seems like it’s going to take more than one terrible season — under unprecedented circumstances — to shake loose from that foundation.
Like the rest of us, Coach Cal is getting a lot of time this March to observe other teams play. One thing I have noticed with the Elite Eight teams is how supportive their coaches are during the game of the players. Cheering them on, encouraging even after bad plays, etc. While Coach Cal is a Hall of Famer, do you feel this is something that he himself could improve in his own approach? For elite players, will this cause them to consider going to Michigan, Gonzaga, Baylor, UCLA versus Kentucky where they know one mistake results in going to the bench?
This is an interesting question, and it’s a topic that seems to lead to a lot of emails from Kentucky fans throughout the season. The stomping and jumping and screaming and hollering — directed at his players, at officials, sometimes seemingly at space in general — clearly rubs a lot of fans the wrong way.
And, yes, it has been refreshing to see some of the other approaches at work in this NCAA Tournament. There was one instance that stuck out in the UCLA-Michigan game, where the Wolverines were planning a possession to tie or win the game with under a second left. Instead of yelling in a huddle and scribbling madly on a dry-erase board, Wolverines Coach Juwan Howard stood with his players and calmly told them exactly what they needed to do on that play. Michigan didn’t win, but the team executed the plan and got as good a look as they were going to get. Howard’s presence there was nice to see.
Now, to be fair to Calipari, he’s often dealing with either young players or players who aren’t experienced playing for him (or both), and that has to make in-game, on-the-fly instruction a great deal more difficult. And Calipari did try to change his approach this past season after acknowledging that his ranting and raving on the sidelines probably wasn’t having the best effect on his young and struggling team.
Yes, he wears his frustration on his sleeve during games, and perhaps better results could come from a more measured approach. But, he’s also taken six teams to the Final Four, won a national championship and been inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame, so whatever he’s doing — no matter how visually displeasing it is to many fans — must work to some extent.
As far as how his sideline antics might negatively affect recruits. I don’t think that’s an issue at all. I think Calipari and his assistants would tell you that any player scared off by what they would label as demanding coaching is a player who wouldn’t fit at UK anyway. In fact, I’ll often talk to a player or a parent after an in-season recruiting visit — where they get to sit directly behind the UK bench during a game — and it’s pretty amazing how often that player will say something like: “I really liked how hard he coached his guys. It shows that he cares.” Or a dad will say something like: “He holds his players accountable and gets the best out of them. That’s what my son needs.”
Kentucky basketball, as Calipari says ad nauseum, isn’t for everybody. But getting an up-close look at how they’re going to be coached is a good experience for the players UK recruits, and, for the most part, it seems like the passion that Calipari brings to games means much more to these players than the prospect of getting yelled at for a couple of hours twice a week.
A couple of NCAA questions — any word on when recruits are going to be allowed on campus visits again? Not being able to have Hunter Sallis visit seems like it killed UK’s momentum in that recruitment. Also, does it seem like any name, image and likeness rules changes will go into effect before next season?
To answer the recruiting question first, the NCAA’s “dead period” related to COVID-19 has been in effect since last March and basically bans all official recruiting travel. College coaches can’t visit recruits at their homes or schools or see them play in person. Recruits can’t travel to college campuses and see team facilities or meet with coaches and other program officials, etc.
The dead period is set to expire at the end of next month, and — though it has been extended numerous times over the past year — there’s been a thinking among college sports officials that this will actually be the time when some of these restrictions will be loosened. So, right now, it looks like June 1 might be the date when recruits and their families are once again allowed to visit college campuses and meet with coaches and team personnel.
It’s important to note, however, that 1) it won’t be a surprise if the dead period is extended yet again; and 2) even if it’s lifted to allow campus visits in June, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the NCAA kept restrictions in place prohibiting college coaches from traveling to recruiting events (and thus packing small gyms with lots of people from all over the country).
As long as COVID-19 cases don’t spike again, allowing kids to visit campuses where they’ll be attending school should be a priority. (None of Kentucky’s three signees for next season was able to take an official visit to Lexington, for example). Getting college coaches an opportunity to see players they’re recruiting in person — something that hasn’t happened in more than a year now — will also be important. We’ll see when that happens.
As far as the name, image and likeness issue, I wouldn’t get overly optimistic about any changes in time for next season. The clock is now ticking quickly on that, and an overhaul of NIL rules — something that would constitute one of the biggest changes in the history of college athletics — has many moving parts.
We’ve all seen over the years how hesitant the NCAA is to embrace change and how slowly that change actually happens once it becomes inevitable. Do we really think the NCAA is going to be able — or, more to the point, willing — to enact such drastic changes in a matter of months? Especially when they’re pretty clearly opposed to doing it at all?
There was an initial proposal to an overhaul of NIL rules, but that was basically set aside due to the many instances of pending state and federal legislation related to the issue. The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments Wednesday in the NCAA v. Alston case dealing with “student-athlete” compensation. On Thursday, three men’s basketball players met with NCAA President Mark Emmert and reportedly requested that a blanket waiver be issued that would allow college players to make money from endorsement deals during the 2021-22 school year until a more permanent solution to NIL rules could be finalized.
“All three players said they weren’t optimistic that Emmert would take any swift action,” according to ESPN’s reporting on that meeting.
Basically, a lot is happening here. And the NCAA — i.e. the nation’s major universities — seems perfectly content to let everything play out before making any real changes on its own. So, don’t expect any tangible reform in time for next season.
From a Kentucky basketball standpoint — taking an admittedly cynical look at the situation — UK recruiting could benefit greatly from NIL reforms, giving John Calipari and his assistant coaches an ability to sell the opportunity to play (and make major endorsement money) in one of the most rabid college sports markets in the country.
Obviously, the program’s recruits for next season are already in place. Being able to work possible NIL reforms into their pitch for the 2022 class could have a big impact on the UK coaching staff’s success with that group, however. It’s expected to be a class with several five-star players looking at the G League as a possible route.
Top center Jalen Duren and No. 1 shooting guard Keyonte George — two major UK targets — have already been mentioned as possibilities to take that option. If Calipari were in a situation to offer the benefit of profiting in UK’s market while also building their brand as Kentucky players — and learning from a Hall of Fame coach — before heading off to the NBA, perhaps that could be a game-changer.
Looking a year further into the future, New Jersey point guard DJ Wagner is the No. 1 player in the 2023 class and a recruit who has extensive family ties to Calipari. Wagner will almost certainly get a major money offer to play in the G League. If he goes to college, it’s widely accepted that he’ll play for Calipari, and it certainly wouldn’t hurt UK’s chances to be able to use NIL possibilities as icing on the cake in a recruiting pitch.
Whenever these NIL reforms happen — and they will happen at some point — Kentucky should be one of college basketball’s biggest beneficiaries. So it would certainly help Calipari’s recruiting efforts if those reforms were in place sooner rather than later.
