Major changes coming to college basketball recruiting in 2021. How will UK adapt?
Following a year of great uncertainty and adaptation in college basketball, 2021 should bring new questions as a result of major changes to some of the sport’s most established practices.
The effects of these changes on the college basketball recruiting landscape — and Kentucky’s recruiting efforts, specifically — will be impossible to ignore.
Here are five things to watch in the new year and how UK might be affected by each.
Free transfers
What has long been speculated looks like it will finally come to fruition.
Later this month, the NCAA is expected to finalize changes to its transfer rules that would allow players to switch colleges and play for their new school without having to sit out for a season. That change is expected to go into effect for the 2021-22 season, meaning this spring and summer could be a mad scramble as college coaches look to fill out their rosters.
The NCAA has been slowly moving toward this new reality, and — with its approval looking like a foregone conclusion — proved to be extremely lenient with transfer requests this past offseason before ultimately issuing a blanket waiver last month allowing all transfers to play immediately.
There will be some stipulations with the “free transfer rule” — athletes must be in good academic standing at their previous school, and players still won’t be permitted to transfer and play for two teams in the same academic season, for instance — but, for the most part, any player who wants to switch schools won’t have to sit out at his new one or go through the agonizing transfer waiver process before learning his fate.
This change will also add a significant new layer to recruiting. College coaches will now basically have to re-recruit players on their own teams as other schools put out feelers through third parties to gauge those players’ interest in transferring. This is already a relatively common practice in college basketball, and it’ll only ramp up once the sit-out provision goes away.
How does it affect Kentucky? Arguably, few programs will be affected more. The players UK recruits — almost exclusively top 50 national prospects — know they’ll have promising options elsewhere if they don’t immediately go to the pros after their first college season. (And if they don’t know that, other schools interested in their services will make it clear through back channels). Those players — the multi-year guys that John Calipari needs to add some continuity to his roster — will be left with annual decisions of whether to stick it out at UK, stay the course and hope to emerge as star players (like Immanuel Quickley and Nick Richards did last season) or jump at the pitch of a new start and guaranteed minutes somewhere else.
Kentucky has been willing to help recent transfers — like Jemarl Baker and Johnny Juzang — gain eligibility as quickly as possible at their new schools, but getting to play without sitting a full year wasn’t a sure thing when those players left. Now, it will be a sure thing, and UK will have to fend off other major schools to keep its own players.
On the flip side, Kentucky will almost certainly look to add to its own roster through immediate transfers. UK has been an attractive destination for older transfers — Reid Travis, Nate Sestina and Olivier Sarr — in recent years and dipped its toe into the traditional transfer process with Jacob Toppin this past offseason. The Wildcats’ coaches will surely be keeping tabs on those who might be interested in jumping to a new school for the 2021-22 season, and if there’s a good fit for Kentucky out there, they’ll try to make it happen.
Name, image and likeness
The other major change expected to be formally approved by the NCAA this month is an overhaul of the organization’s name, image and likeness rules that would finally give “student-athletes” the ability to make money while retaining their amateur status.
This one is a lot less clear cut than the “free transfer” rule.
The particulars of what the new NIL rules will look like have been changing on a regular basis. There also have been separate hearings in Congress — as well as federal legislation proposed on the subject — in addition to legislative movements at the state level, most notably in California and Florida, to dictate what this new model for athletes earning money will entail.
So, whatever the NCAA approves in the coming weeks is unlikely to be what NIL rules look like a few years from now. But, it does seem likely that athletes will be permitted to make money off their likeness in some fashion, and these new rules are expected to be in effect for the 2021-22 academic year.
How does it affect Kentucky? Again, UK might be one of the schools most affected by this change. It’s logical to think that the biggest college basketball markets would offer some of the most lucrative opportunities for players, and the UK program’s rabid fan base and statewide appeal should lead to such opportunities. Kentucky players are already making tens of thousands of dollars through postseason autograph tours after using up their college eligibility or declaring for the pros early. In theory, they would be able to do that while still in school starting next season. Tentative NCAA proposals would allow for players to profit off such things as autographs, camp appearances and even participation in advertisements. Any changes to NIL will be highly regulated, but — as soon as this thing passes — expect to see UK basketball players in commercials and paid social media campaigns. Another wrinkle: the NCAA’s proposal would also allow recruits to profit off their likeness in certain ways and still protect their college eligibility.
There is still so much uncertainty over NIL changes, and not every question on the subject will be answered in 2021.
Recruiting dead period
The NCAA enacted a recruiting “dead period” on March 13 in an attempt to combat the spread of COVID-19, effectively banning in-person recruiting contact between college coaches and high school prospects. That meant colleges couldn’t host campus visits and coaches couldn’t travel to see players play in person or meet with their families. Pretty much all of the major AAU events and national camps were canceled as a result.
The dead period has also been extended several times since March as COVID-19 case numbers remain high and the risk of spread outweighs the needs of college coaches to be on the recruiting trail. The most recent extension lasts through April 15, which is 10 days after the scheduled end to this college basketball season and around the time that major shoe company leagues would normally hold their first big events of the spring.
There’s hope that this will actually be the end of what has become an indefinite dead period in recruiting. There’s optimism, but no certainty. If the dead period is extended again, it would probably stretch into the summer and wipe out any opportunity for coaches to evaluate recruits in person this spring. It would also mean that any uncommitted players in the 2021 class — and any possible reclassification candidates from the 2022 class — would not be able to go on sanctioned campus visits before making their college decisions. And with no college coaches in attendance, another dead period extension could again alter the AAU schedules for players in the 2022 class and beyond.
How does it affect Kentucky? The most immediate benefit — if the dead period is lifted — would be UK having the ability to get uncommitted seniors like Jaden Hardy, Hunter Sallis, Efton Reid and Brandin Podziemski on campus. All of those players are on UK’s radar for the 2021 class, and none of them seem to be in any great hurry to make a college decision. Sallis, the No. 1 point guard in the class, has specifically said he’d like to visit UK before making a decision. If the dead period is again extended — and official visits aren’t allowed — it would likely only hurt the Cats’ chances with Hardy and Sallis, in particular.
In the longer term, college coaches would like to get back in the gyms and evaluate recruits with their own eyes, rather than relying on live streams and intel gathering to pinpoint top targets moving forward. UK, especially, is meticulous when deciding which recruits to seriously pursue. The Cats extended some scholarship offers and even took a couple of commitments last year without seeing players play much in person — it was unavoidable in 2020 — but, for the 2022 class, they’d much prefer to get a better feel for prospective recruits by watching them up close and meeting with them and their families.
G League Ignite
High school recruits had skipped college for professional opportunities before last year, but 2020 was the biggest example yet of the preps-to-pros movement, with five highly touted prospects — Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Isaiah Todd, Daishen Nix and Kai Sotto — opting for the G League’s new developmental program over college scholarship offers.
Kentucky was involved, at various levels of seriousness, with all five of those recruits.
Those players are now on the G League Ignite team, which is scheduled to participate in the league’s Orlando bubble in the coming weeks. G League players, the new recruits included, are expected to arrive in Orlando this month with the first games set for early February and playoffs scheduled for early March.
The eyes of the recruiting world will be on players like Green and Kuminga — former top-five recruits and possible top-five NBA Draft picks — as they maneuver this new basketball path. The Ignite players will also be sharing their experiences with current recruits, and the results of this first group could have an impact on the future decisions of highly touted high school players.
How does it affect Kentucky? Jaden Hardy, the No. 1 backcourt player in the 2021 class, was one of UK’s first serious targets in that group, and he’s long been seen as a player that will seriously consider this G League path. Hardy will probably be talking to guys like Jalen Green as he continues his recruitment, and the consensus in recruiting circles is that the G League is probably the favorite for his commitment. UK and other colleges still have a chance, however.
Other prominent players in the 2021 class have openly talked about jumping straight to the G League, and it’s inevitable that others will follow the 2020 quintet and take that route. Kentucky’s highest-ranked target in the 2022 class — Philadelphia post player Jalen Duren — is also being mentioned as a possible G League option, as are several other 2022 recruits.
This G League path seems like it’s here to stay for at least the next few years. The experience of this first wave of recruits will almost certainly affect how many high school players follow in the near future.
Will Calipari switch things up?
Kentucky fans are restless after the terrible start to the 2020-21 season, and a large segment of them have been vocally calling for some kind of change for a few years now. One-and-done fatigue is real, and the longtime fans, especially, want to see UK players return for multiple seasons. Watching bad basketball in November and December isn’t worth it for fans who haven’t seen a UK team reach the Final Four in six years. (Recruiting Wildcats who can shoot the ball from deep remains a constant request).
Will John Calipari change things up?
In some regards, he already has. UK backed off of some of those G League jumpers after identifying the possibility early in the process, and the Wildcats are already adapting to the changes in the transfer rules.
The calls for more roster continuity — a complaint among many fans even when Calipari was regularly going to Final Fours — will be the more interesting aspect of UK’s recruiting efforts moving forward. Clearly, UK’s coaches have tried to recruit more multi-year players in recent years. So far, it hasn’t worked out the way they planned.
Calipari will continue to pursue the best of the best, but getting other talented but less-touted players on campus — especially some guys who can make a three — and then getting them to stick around will be the key.
How does it affect Kentucky? This one is all about Kentucky, and only time will tell if Calipari can pull it off. Attracting players who could star at other big schools and asking them to play a smaller role for a year or two (or longer) is no easy task, but that’s the one UK’s coach has in front of him if he’s to add some continuity to his roster and eliminate the massive turnover that seems to be turning off more and more fans. This current team, as well as the incoming recruiting class, could start the trend in that direction.
By the end of 2021, we’ll have a much better idea if it’s working.
