Five questions to be answered by the 2022 Kentucky Derby

Guess what, Kentucky Derby Day is here.

No more prep races. No more leaderboards. No more prerace works. No more analyzing and agonizing, projections and predictions. Once the full field of 20 horses loads into the Churchill Downs starting gate for the 6:57 p.m. post time on Saturday for the 148th running, all our questions will be answered.

Here are five:

1. Can a colt win the Kentucky Derby off two races?

That’s the Taiba question. Purchased for $1.7 million by Amr Zedan, the son of Gun Runner is taking a shot at history, hoping to be the first colt since Leonatus in 1883 to win the Kentucky Derby in just his third career start.

Taiba has certainly looked terrific so far. Trained by Bob Baffert, he rock and rolled in his career debut, dominating a 6-furlong sprint at Santa Anita by 7 1/2 lengths on March 5. With Baffert’s trainees ineligible for Kentucky Derby points, Zedan moved his colt to trainer Tim Yakteen, then convinced a skeptical Yakteen to run Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby. The owner was right. Taiba won the Grade 1 by 2 1/4 lengths over stablemate Messier.

Stat to remember: Since the Beyer Speed Figures were introduced in 1992, only one horse has won the Kentucky Derby without first posting a 100 Beyer. That was California Chrome in 1995. Only three horses in this year’s Derby have posted a 100 Beyer. The three: Epicenter, Taiba and Messier. Taiba is the only one with multiple 100 Beyers — 103 in his debut; 102 in the Santa Anita Derby.

2. Is Crown Pride the real deal?

The Japanese-bred horse has turned heads on the Churchill backside, and not just for the unusual preparation methods of trainer Koichi Shintani. Example: Crown Pride worked 4 furlongs in a quick :46 3/5 on Wednesday, just three days before the Derby.

[How important are prerace works for Kentucky Derby horses?]

The only Japanese-bred to previously compete in the Kentucky Derby was Master Fencer, who finished sixth in 2019. And Crown Pride qualified for the Kentucky Derby by winning the UAE Derby. Horses who have run in the UAE Derby are a combined 0-for-16 in the Kentucky Derby.

One thing to remember: For the first time, Japanese horses won Breeders’ Cup races last year. The first Japanese horse to do so was Loves Only You in the Filly and Mare Turf at Del Mar. About 90 minutes later, Japan got its second victory when Marche Lorraine won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Was that a sign of things to come?

3. Will Steve Asmussen finally break his Derby drought?

The all-time winningest trainer in Thoroughbred racing is a well-documented 0-for-23 in America’s most famous race. He’s finished second twice. Nehro was runner-up to Animal Kingdom in 2011; Lookin At Lee was second to Always Dreaming in 2017.

Epicenter is Asmussen’s best shot to date to finally win that elusive Derby trophy. Raised in Bowling Green and owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds, the son of Not This Time is coming off back-to-back wins in the Grade 2 Risen Star and the Grade 1 Louisiana Derby, both at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

After running a 102 Beyer in the Louisiana Derby, some wonder if Epicenter has peaked too soon. Not Asmussen. “I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t win,” he said this week.

[Kentucky Derby expert picks]

4. Can Smile Happy get the distance?

Trained by Lexington’s Kenny McPeek, Smile Happy was extremely impressive as a 2-year-old, winning his career debut by 5 1/2 lengths at Keeneland before taking the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club by 3 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs last November.

He’s run just twice as a 3-year-old. Both ended in runner-up finishes. Smile Happy was beaten by Epicenter in the Risen Star on Feb. 19 at the Fair Grounds, then finished second to Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 9.

“I’m not disappointed at all,” said McPeek coming off that race, pointing to the fact that it was Smile Happy’s second start off a layoff.

Smile Happy’s sire is Runhappy, however. Runhappy was a champion sprinter, winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Keeneland in 2015. Can Smile Happy pass the mile-and-a-quarter stress test? We shall see.

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5. Will a Blue Grass Stakes winner win the Kentucky Derby?

You have to go back to 1991 and Strike the Gold to find the last winner of Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes who traveled 80 miles up the road and won the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Morning-line favorite Zandon has a shot to do that this year. Trained by Chad Brown, the son of Upstart was impressive in his Blue Grass victory, executing a monster move from 11th to second before passing Smile Happy in the stretch to secure the win.

Brown trained Good Magic, the 2018 Blue Grass winner who finished second behind Triple Crown champion Justify in the Kentucky Derby.

Said Brown this week, “Maybe we can get both this time.”

This story was originally published May 7, 2022 at 6:00 AM.

John Clay

Lexington Herald-Leader

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John Clay is a sports columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader. A native of Central Kentucky, he covered UK football from 1987 until being named sports columnist in 2000. He has covered 20 Final Fours and 42 consecutive Kentucky Derbys. Support my work with a digital subscription