Kentucky Derby media predictions: Three horses fascinate the analysts.

The Herald-Leader asked several horse racing experts to handicap Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

Blue Grass Stakes winner Zandon is the 3-1 morning-line favorite, with Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter right behind him at 7-2, West Coast star Messier next at 8-1, and longer shots like Taiba (12-1) and Cyberknife (20-1) among the others getting support.

Here are our experts’ predictions. Zandon, Epicenter and Messier received the most support:

John Clay

Herald-Leader

Win: Taiba

Place: Cyberknife

Show: Zandon

Comment: No matter how hard it tries, Churchill Downs just can’t shake Bob Baffert.

Mark Story

Herald-Leader

Win: White Abarrio

Place: Messier

Show: Taiba

Comment: I know White Abarrio’s only career loss is at Churchill Downs but I lay that off to a bad trip, not any dislike for the racing surface.

Ben Roberts

Herald-Leader

Win: Epicenter

Place: Mo Donegal

Show: Zandon

Comment: In a field full of question marks, I’ll take the horse who checks every box.

Cameron Drummond

Herald-Leader

Win: Zandon

Place: Epicenter

Show: Mo Donegal

Comment: Zandon will leave from the most preferred post position (No. 10) in modern Derby history and flashed impressive speed through a crowded middle during his Blue Grass Stakes win at Keeneland.

Frank Angst

BloodHorse

Win: Epicenter

Place: Crown Pride

Show: Messier

Comment: I’ve been visually impressed with Epicenter’s back-to-back graded stakes wins at Fair Grounds. Beyond the fact he won the Risen Star Stakes by 2 ¾ lengths followed home by four other Kentucky Derby starters, including favored Zandon; and then in the Louisiana Derby he registered a 2 ½-length score over two Kentucky Derby starters; it’s the ease at which he is posting these victories. He appears to be well within his comfort zone in these wins, suggesting he’s capable of even more on Saturday.

Rick Bozich

WDRB

Win: Messier

Place: Zandon

Show: Crown Pride

Comment: With everybody hoping for behind-the-scenes video of Bob Baffert watching the race.

John Cherwa

Los Angeles Times

Win: Messier

Place: Epicenter

Show: Zandon

Comment: Don’t be fooled by Messier’s second in the Santa Anita Derby. It was nothing more than a prep race after a long layoff. He’s a big horse that’s training super. Switch from Baffert to Yakteen not a factor.

Joe Drape

New York Times

Win: Smile Happy

Place: Crown Pride

Show: Mo Donegal

Comment: Smile Happy has won at Churchill, and Kenny McPeek has him primed for a top effort.

Bill Finley

National turf writer

Win: Zandon

Place: Messier

Show: Smile Happy

Comment: Zandon turned in a huge effort in the Blue Grass, and the lightly raced horse can improve off that effort.

Jason Frakes

Courier Journal

Win: Epicenter

Place: Zandon

Show: Zozos

Comment: Raised in Bowling Green, I can’t go against a horse that was bred there. This feels like the year for Steve Asmussen.

Neil Greenberg

Washington Post

Win: Messier

Place: Pioneer of Medina

Show: Cyberknife

Comment: Messier has everything you need in a Kentucky Derby horse — tons of speed, a packed pedigree and the right running style — to hit the wire first.

Steve Haskin

National turf writer

Win: Zandon

Place: Smile Happy

Show: Epicenter

Comment: I wrote a “Derby Sleepers” column on Zandon after his career debut and have remained loyal to him since. What I loved about him way back then I love even more today.

Byron King

BloodHorse

Win: Epicenter

Place: Zandon

Show: Cyberknife

Comment: Epicenter is in top form and tends to run error-free, giving him a narrow Derby advantage over slow-starting Zandon.

Tom Leach

Keeneland

Win: Zandon

Place: Smile Happy

Show: Epicenter

Comment: This will be the first time a jock has ridden Zandon in consecutive races, and I think this horse can run even better with what Flavien Prat learned about him in the Blue Grass.

Marty McGee

Daily Racing Form

Win: Zandon

Place: Cyberknife

Show: Smile Happy

Comment: Chad Brown gets his first Derby on his way to the Hall of Fame.

Mike Penna

Horse Racing Radio Network

Win: Messier

Place: Taiba

Show: Mo Donegal

Comment: Messier has the tactical speed to be in contention from the start and retains the services of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who is a three-time Kentucky Derby winner. His pedigree says the Derby distance won’t be a problem.

Jay Privman

Daily Racing Form

Win: Zandon

Place: Simplification

Show: Epicenter

Comment: Zandon’s acceleration behind a slow pace in the Blue Grass was breathtaking, and he’s trained sharply at Churchill Downs.

Ray Paulick

The Paulick Report

Win: Charge It

Place: Messier

Show: Zandon

Comment: Charge It showed his inexperience when second in the Florida Derby, but I like how he’s trained since then for Todd Pletcher, and he has the natural talent and outstanding pedigree to upset this field.

Jennie Rees

HBPA Communications

Win: Epicenter

Place: Zandon

Show: Smile Happy

Comment: I believe the Kentucky Derby goes through Louisiana — the question is whether it’s the Louisiana Derby or the Risen Star. Epicenter and Zandon are the two to beat, while I’m going with Smile Happy in third to get a closer at a big price.

Kenny Rice

NBC Sports

Win: Zandon

Place: Epicenter

Show: Smile Happy

Comment: First Blue Grass Stakes winner since 1991 to win the roses.

Nicole Russo

Daily Racing Form

Win: Zandon

Place: Epicenter

Show: Barber Road

Comment: Very little separates the two favorites and both are thriving in training. I like the way Zandon has responded to adversity in his races.

Tim Sullivan

Courier Journal

Win: Taiba

Place: Messier

Show: Charge It

Comment: When in doubt, bet on Bob Baffert. When Bob Baffert is not around, bet on the horses he was training before his suspension.

Childs Walker

Baltimore Sun

Win: Epicenter

Place: Taiba

Show: Zandon

Comment: Zandon is the darling of the moment coming off his mighty charge in the Blue Grass, but Epicenter really hasn’t put a foot wrong over the last three months, and his running style suits the Derby better.

Tim Wilkin

National turf writer

Win: Messier

Place: Zandon

Show: Mo Donegal

Comment: Expect big move forward off second in Santa Anita Derby; won’t get this price on him again.

This story was originally published May 5, 2022 at 11:00 AM.

Ben Roberts

Lexington Herald-Leader

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Ben Roberts is the University of Kentucky men’s basketball beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He has previously specialized in UK basketball recruiting coverage and created and maintained the Next Cats blog. He is a Franklin County native and first joined the Herald-Leader in 2006. Support my work with a digital subscription