Handicapping the 2022 Kentucky Derby: A closer look at all 20 contenders Saturday

Another Kentucky Derby is here, and this one appears to be a relatively wide-open race with several possible winners and plenty of intriguing long shots.

The 2022 prep season was filled with headlines involving Bob Baffert, the six-time Derby-winning trainer who had his record seventh victory taken away when Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first last year, failed a drug test after the race. As a result of that Derby disqualification, Baffert has been banned from the race for two years.

So, he won’t be in Louisville on Saturday, but 20 horses with a shot at horse racing immortality will be, and the field includes two former Baffert trainees and a host of other celebrated trainers hoping to capture Kentucky Derby glory.

It’s never easy to predict exactly what will happen in the opening moments of the Derby — plenty can go counter to the plans when 20 3-year-olds break from a starting gate in front of a crowd of more than 100,000 — but there are some clear candidates to lead in the early going.

Classic Causeway usually gets away sharply, and he’ll likely head straight to the front, where he could set some quick fractions in the opening half-mile. Two other long shots — Dubai-based Summer Is Tomorrow and the lightly raced Zozos — will probably be right there with him, and former Baffert trainee Messier seems to be the most likely of the favorites to factor into the early pace.

Epicenter, who could end up the betting favorite, won’t be far behind them. Among the other top choices, White Abarrio should be forwardly placed. Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba — with just two races in his career so far — will be a wild card, with morning-line favorite Zandon and Wood Memorial winner Mo Donegal likely settling back in the opening stages for a big run at the end.

And what happens when this field gets to the Churchill Downs stretch? Answering that question correctly could make you some serious money Saturday evening.

Here’s a look at the best bets, long shots, and horses to avoid with your Derby wagers.

1. Mo Donegal (10-1)

Need to know: Mo Donegal beat Zandon in a stretch duel last December to establish himself as a Derby player. He lived up to that status with a come-from-behind victory in the Wood Memorial following a third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes in his 2022 debut. Even in that Holy Bull loss, he was flying at the end, and the defeat was as much the result of traffic and a short stretch at Gulfstream Park than anything else. Mo should love the added distance and long Churchill stretch run, and he has three-time jockey of the year Irad Ortiz Jr. to guide him. Ortiz and two-time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher sound confident. The 1 post might give bettors pause, but Mo’s running style suits it fine, and the new starting gate should mitigate past issues of being so close to the rail.

A good bet? If he can get a relatively clean trip to the final turn and find some space to run in the stretch, look out. He could be your winner.

2. Happy Jack (30-1)

Need to know: Trained by two-time Derby winner Doug O’Neill (I’ll Have Another and Nyquist), this Calumet Farm homebred has just one win in four starts, with every one of those races at Santa Anita Park. He broke his maiden in his debut Jan. 22. Since then, he’s finished 27 lengths behind Messier, 10 lengths behind Forbidden Kingdom, and 12 lengths behind Taiba. His best Beyer Speed Figure so far is an 83, the worst in this Derby field.

A good bet? Happy Jack should be about 17th in the betting on Saturday. Don’t expect him to finish much better than that in the race.

3. Epicenter (7-2)

Need to know: Epicenter broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last November and has looked spectacular since then, most recently winning the Louisiana Derby (and beating Smile Happy and Zandon in the race before that). In the Louisiana Derby win, he showed a change of style, sitting just off the early leaders instead of setting the pace. It was a huge development in his progression, and the race also earned a 102 Beyer, tied for the fastest in the final round of preps. He’s taken well to the Churchill track since then, with a final workout last weekend that drew rave reviews. He also has reigning jockey of the year Joel Rosario aboard Saturday.

A good bet? He’s the only horse in this race with no question marks. He’s looked great this year, has the right running style, and seems to be improving. Epicenter is the most logical win bet, and he should be the race favorite.

4. Summer Is Tomorrow (30-1)

Need to know: He had never run farther than 7 furlongs until a surprise second-place finish at 1 3/16 miles in the UAE Derby last month. It was an impressive result under the circumstances, but he looked like he had nothing left in the tank at the end. All seven of his previous races have been in Dubai, and he arrived in Louisville a couple of weeks ago. So far, 16 UAE Derby starters have run in the Kentucky Derby, and none have finished better than fifth. Summer Is Tomorrow is ridden by Derby rookie Mickael Barzalona, who won the Dubai World Cup and Epsom Derby at age 20.

A good bet? Don’t see him getting the 1¼ miles. He should be among the longest shots on the board, and it would be a shock if he factors into the finish.

5. Smile Happy (20-1)

Need to know: One of the early Derby favorites after winning the signature 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs in the fall, Smile Happy made his 2022 debut by finishing a respectable second to Epicenter in the Risen Star Stakes. Derby favorite Zandon was third in that race, but he caught Smile Happy in the stretch for a decisive victory in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last month. Churchill Downs master Corey Lanerie has said he’d like to have Smile Happy about fifth or sixth in the early going Saturday. There are some distance concerns here, but trainer Kenny McPeek (a Lexington native) hasn’t sounded too worried.

A good bet? If he’s really 20-1 at post time, absolutely. This could be a horse better suited for a shorter distance, or it could be a major talent with a much longer price than he deserves. Take a chance on the latter. And don’t leave him out of the exotic bets.

6. Messier (8-1)

Need to know: The star of the Bob Baffert barn for much of the prep season, Messier delivered an eye-popping 15-length win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, earning a field-best 103 Beyer for the effort. More recently, he was caught by second-time starter Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby stretch. Messier, now trained by former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen, has never been in a field with more than six horses. All six of his previous races have been in California. He’s the son of regally bred Empire Maker, who has been the grandsire of two Derby winners (but never sired a Derby winner himself).

A good bet? If anyone is going to steal this race on the lead, it’s him. That seems unlikely, however. Messier has put up big numbers, but he hasn’t finished ahead of any horse of note so far. You have to throw out some of the favorites on Derby Day.

7. Crown Pride (20-1)

Need to know: Bred and based in Japan, he’s a winner of three races in four starts, most recently catching Summer Is Tomorrow in the stretch to take the UAE Derby. That performance showed Crown Pride can travel a long way and perform, and he’s been in Louisville since March 30, so he should be acclimated to Churchill Downs by now. He turned in a bullet workout at 4 furlongs last week and has been impressive in the mornings, though his training regimen has been unorthodox (by American standards). Japanese horses have done well internationally in recent months, with two Breeders’ Cup wins last fall and a big Dubai World Cup day in March. Crown Pride is the youngest horse in this field. His third birthday was technically Wednesday.

A good bet? He’s one of the more intriguing international horses in recent Derbys, but until someone comes over here and actually hits the board, it’s best to remain skeptical.

8. Charge It (20-1)

Need to know: Charge It has just three career starts, with one victory and, most recently, a runner-up finish to White Abarrio in the Florida Derby. In that race, he hit the starting gate at the break and was all over the place in the stretch, still managing to get second place. He’s the son of Tapit, a three-time leading sire in North America who has been the father of four of the last eight Belmont Stakes winners (but no Derby champs so far). All three of his races have been at Gulfstream Park, though he seems to be taking to the Churchill track.

A good bet? He has a ton of talent, but he looked so green in the Florida Derby, and jumping up to this spot — at a mile and a quarter with 19 rivals and a huge, loud crowd — seems like too much, too soon.

9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1)

Need to know: The runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall has won his last two races on the synthetic track at Turfway Park after starting 2022 by finishing seventh of nine in the Holy Bull Stakes on the Gulfstream Park dirt. His record on turf and synthetic surfaces: five starts, four wins, one second-place finish. His record on dirt: three starts, one win (a maiden race last July) and two seventh-place finishes. The plan a few weeks ago was to send him to Europe and run some major turf races there. Derby points (and, seemingly, Derby fever) changed those plans.

A good bet? He has the makings of a great turf horse, but can he do it on dirt? If you believe he can, you’ll get a big price. But that’s too much of a leap of faith in this race.

10. Zandon (3-1)

Need to know: He looked brilliant in the Blue Grass Stakes, going from last to first in a flash — despite slow fractions up front — and running right past early Derby favorite Smile Happy in the stretch. Before that, he was the victim of bad circumstances, finishing third to Epicenter and Smile Happy after a bad start to the Risen Star Stakes and second to Mo Donegal, getting bumped by the winner at the end of the Remsen Stakes. Only three horses in the last 100 years have won the Derby with four or fewer previous starts, though all three (Justify, Animal Kingdom and Big Brown) have done it in the past 14 years. Zandon, with four career starts, is one of seven horses in this field that fits that category.

A good bet? His come-from-behind style could lead to major problems in a 20-horse field, but he clearly has the talent to win this race. You can’t leave him out of the exotics, but it seems like the win price might be too short.

11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1)

Need to know: Consistent but unspectacular, Pioneer of Medina comes into this one off a third-place finish behind Epicenter and Zozos in the Louisiana Derby and a fourth-place finish behind Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon in the Risen Star Stakes. He was beaten only 3¼ and 4½ lengths, respectively, in those races, and his 96 Beyer for the Louisiana Derby stacks up pretty well with this field. He’s been right near the early pace in previous starts and will be getting his seventh different jockey (50-year-old Joe Bravo) in seven races. His sire is Pioneerof the Nile, father of American Pharoah.

A good bet? Of the eight 30-1 horses on the morning line, he’s certainly one of the best. Wouldn’t be a shock if he factored into the superfecta, but other long shots are more intriguing.

12. Taiba (12-1)

Need to know: Training up to the Kentucky Derby has changed in recent years, with fewer races and a less rigorous 3-year-old campaign becoming the norm. Even by those standards, Taiba is a major outlier. He has just two career starts, the most recent one a victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Leonatus (in 1883!) is the only Kentucky Derby winner with just two previous starts, and just two others have even attempted it since 1949. Taiba’s first race didn’t come until March 5, but he’s run triple-digit Beyers (103 and 102) in both starts, the only horse in this race with multiple 100+ Beyers. Another former Bob Baffert trainee now in the barn of Tim Yakteen, he is the son of Gun Runner, was a $1.7 million purchase as a 2-year-old, and has the same owner as Medina Spirit. Mike Smith will be aboard for his record 28th Derby.

A good bet? The talent is clearly there. And he might be a super horse that can overcome history. But there’s just too much history. Beating this field — and he’s never faced more than six horses in a single race — simply seems like too big a hurdle for a colt who began racing only two months ago.

13. Simplification (20-1)

Need to know: Bred in Florida, all seven of his career starts have come at Gulfstream Park, and he’s turned in some good workouts there over the past few weeks before arriving in Louisville on Saturday. He won the Fountain of Youth Stakes earlier this year, managing quite a bit of traffic and running well at the end (a good sign for Derby Day). He finished great to get second behind White Abarrio after a poor start in the Holy Bull and ran a better-than-it-looked third to White Abarrio and Charge It in the Florida Derby.

A good bet? One of the best long shots in this field and a horse that could very well spice up a trifecta bet Saturday. He might do even better than that.

14. Barber Road (30-1)

Need to know: His eight career starts on dirt make him the most seasoned starter in this race, and — even though he hasn’t won in four tries this year — he’s always game at the end. All four 2022 starts have come at Oaklawn Park, where he has three runner-up finishes and one third-place showing, most recently coming in behind Cyberknife in the Arkansas Derby. He won at Churchill Downs on Nov. 10, his last victory. First Derby for trainer John Ortiz and jockey Reylu Gutierrez, who has said he’ll drop in at the start to try and save as much ground as possible for the stretch run.

A good bet? On Derby Day, always look out for a long shot that will be running at the end. Barber Road is just that — a scrappy horse with a never-quit style that shouldn’t surprise anyone if he hits the board at a big price.

15. White Abarrio (10-1)

Need to know: The star of the Gulfstream Park circuit this year, White Abarrio won the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby convincingly, with trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. opting to skip the Fountain of Youth for a little more rest in between starts. That plan looks good now. White Abarrio is 4-for-4 at Gulfstream, and the only other race of his career was a third-place finish behind Smile Happy and Classic Causeway at Churchill Downs last fall. He arrived in Louisville earlier this week. The gray colt’s damsire is the star stallion Into Mischief, father of the last two Kentucky Derby winners. His running style will likely put him near the early leaders, but he’s not going to get caught in any speed battles up front.

A good bet? The beautiful gray will probably be a focus of casual bettors, but he doesn’t seem to be getting much buzz otherwise. That could be a mistake. He can certainly challenge in this race and might be the most overlooked horse in the field.

16. Cyberknife (20-1)

Need to know: Likely to go off as the shortest price of the three contenders from trainer Brad Cox, this son of Gun Runner has won two straight — including the Arkansas Derby — since a perplexing sixth-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes to start the year. He finished first in his career debut at Churchill Downs last fall but was DQ’d to second due to a late bump. The Cox barn has been high on him, and he’s arguably been the most impressive worker at Churchill Downs in the Derby lead up. “I thought his two works here were the best Derby works I’ve seen,” Cox said. “I may be biased, but that’s my opinion.” He should be in the first half of the field in the early going.

A good bet? Doubt he’ll actually go off at 20-1 — look for him to get bet down some — but it’s worth taking a flier on him at anything close to that price, and if he runs like he’s been training he could definitely hit the board.

17. Classic Causeway (30-1)

Need to know: Classic Causeway was second to Smile Happy in the top 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs in 2021 and dominated the two big preps at Tampa Bay Downs this year before finishing 11th and last in the Florida Derby, bowing out of that race early. It doesn’t look like he beat much in those Tampa Bay races and didn’t have much excuse for the Florida Derby flop. His best Beyer (90) came last September, in his first race. He’s probably the most likely horse to set the early pace Saturday.

A good bet? No. His entry seems like Derby fever, and, even if he gets the early lead, surely he’ll be getting swallowed up by the final turn.

18. Tawny Port (30-1)

Need to know: Trained by Brad Cox, he finished second to Tiz the Bomb in the Jeff Ruby Steaks before winning the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in the final Derby prep. That win was just his second career start on dirt — he earned an 89 Beyer for the effort — with his other three starts coming on the synthetic track at Turfway Park. He was fifth behind Epicenter, Smile Happy, Zandon and Pioneer of Medina in the Risen Star Stakes, beaten nearly 8 lengths. His sire is Pioneerof the Nile, the father of American Pharoah.

A good bet? There are other long shots with more to offer. This seems like an uphill battle for him.

19. Zozos (20-1)

Need to know: A colt with just three career starts, Zozos — also from the barn of Brad Cox — broke his maiden with a 10-length victory at Oaklawn Park in February and then came back to finish second to Epicenter after setting the early pace in the Louisiana Derby. In that race, he finished just 2½ lengths behind the potential Derby favorite and didn’t give in when passed by Epicenter in the stretch. Zozos earned a 98 Beyer for the race, and only Epicenter, Messier and Taiba have done better this year. Worth noting that he was unraced at 2 years old, and Justify is the only horse to win the Derby since Apollo (1882) with that distinction.

A good bet? He should be part of the early pace scenario, and his tenacity in the stretch of the Louisiana Derby shows he might be able to hang on at the end Saturday. Don’t think he’ll win, but won’t be leaving him out of any trifecta wagers.

21. Rich Strike (30-1)

Need to know: Rich Strike drew into the race following the Friday morning scratch of fellow 30-1 shot Ethereal Road, who would’ve been the 50th Derby entrant for legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Instead, Lexington-based trainer Eric Reed will have his first Derby starter. Rich Strike has just one win in seven starts, and that came in a maiden race last September at Churchill Downs. All three of his races this year have been run on the synthetic track at Turfway Park, where he most recently finished third behind Tiz the Bomb and Tawny Port in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, earning a career-best 84 Beyer. Epicenter beat him by 14 lengths in his last dirt start on Dec. 26. His sire is Keen Ice, who was the only horse to beat Triple Crown champion American Pharoah during his 3-year-old season.

A good bet? He’s the type that could be passing tired horses late in the stretch, but it’s doubtful he’ll pass enough to hit the board.

This story was originally published May 5, 2022 at 9:31 AM.

Ben Roberts

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-429-2848

Ben Roberts is the University of Kentucky men’s basketball beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He has previously specialized in UK basketball recruiting coverage and created and maintained the Next Cats blog. He is a Franklin County native and first joined the Herald-Leader in 2006. Support my work with a digital subscription