Louisville adopts new turnover motto for 2021 season: ‘Plus one’

If you’re not sure about the importance of turnovers, Louisville’s last two seasons are an epiphany.

The Cardinals averaged only 13 more rushing yards, only 10 less passing yards, only a 10th of a yard more per play and less than four more points a game in 2019 than in 2020.

Yet U of L had an encouraging 8-5 record in 2019, then a dispiriting 4-7 record in 2020.

“Louisville and its coach went from earning the benefit of the doubt to deserving zero trust …,” Lindy’s Sports said in its magazine previewing the upcoming season. “The 2020 season could not have gone worse.”

Hyperbole aside, why in the midst of similar statistics the transition from winning to losing? In a word, turnovers.

Louisville had only one more turnover than its opponents in 2019 (19-18). Then U of L doubled the number of turnovers by its opponents last season (24-12).

Hence, going into the 2021 season, Louisville is emphasizing turnovers — more for the opponents, less for the Cards.

“You can manipulate stats,” Coach Scott Satterfield said at U of L’s media day. “You can spin them a lot of different ways. But turnover margin is one of the most critical stats there is. The analytics say you don’t turn the ball over (and) you create more (by the opponents), you’re going to win 75 percent of your games.”

Quarterback Malik Cunningham accounted for a majority of Louisville’s turnovers last season. He threw 12 interceptions and lost three fumbles.

“You can definitely say turnovers played a big part in us losing … ,” he said before adding, “but that’s in the past. … Playing quarterback, you can’t think about turning the ball over because that’s when you make more turnovers.”

Cunningham said he wanted to adopt a “next-play mentality” going forward. He also said he wanted to avoid “trying to do too much extra stuff, and just take what the defense gives you.”

Of course, turnovers are a two-way street. In addition to limiting its turnovers, Louisville also wants to make opponents more turnover-prone.

To help foster a desire to create more turnovers, U of L defensive coordinator Bryan Brown came up with a catchy label.

“Our motto is we’ve got to be ‘plus one,’” he said of the goal for each game. “… We want to have one more turnover than the opposing defense. If you can do that, I think you can win a lot more games.”

Toward that end, Brown spoke of players working to create fumbles. The idea would be having a primary defender look to make the tackle while an approaching second defender seeks to punch the ball away from an unsuspecting offensive player.

“Most of the time, the offensive player is trying to make the guy in front miss (the tackle),” Brown said. “You’re not thinking of the guy behind you.”

Then there’s interceptions, or the lack thereof. Louisville only had five last season.

“I think we dropped seven interceptions last year which were right in the guy’s hands,” Satterfield said.

Cornerback Kei’Trel Clark, who had one of the five interceptions, said creating more turnovers was “most definitely” a goal this coming season.

“Because we had a lot of ‘PBUs’ that should have been interceptions,” he said.

PBUs?

“Pass break-ups,” Clark said.

When asked why Louisville had PBUs rather than interceptions, Clark said, “Man, we weren’t being ball hawks last year. We were being conservative.”

To foster a more aggressive approach, Louisville players have concentrated on the ball this preseason. That’s even after the play ends. No ball in a scrimmage or drill is supposed to remain on the ground.

And if a player drops an interception, he is required to do 10 push-ups, Clark said. With Brown adding, “and their peers make sure they heckle them a little bit.”

Satterfield suggested the emphasis on turnover margin comes with a need to be careful.

“Turnovers are a funny thing,” the U of L coach said. “You talk about them all the time, then you get guys playing tentatively. You have to be able to cut loose and play. There’s a fine line with that. We have been stressing it all offseason. We know that was a big concern of ours last year and was a reason we didn’t finish out games like we should have done last year.”

Louisville players spoke confidently about a turnover turnaround this season.

Of the potential interceptions dropped last season, Clark said, “We would have led the country (in interceptions) if we caught everything.”

As for this season, Clark declared, “We’re going to be the top defense in the ACC.”

Scouting report

Head coach: Scott Satterfield. His record in eight seasons as a head coach is 63-36. In two seasons at Louisville, it’s 12-12.

Last season: 4-7 (3-7 in the ACC). It was only Louisville’s second losing record since 2009.

Returning starters: Counting players who started at least five games last season, Louisville returns seven starters on offense, another seven on defense, plus place-kicker James Turner, who made 13 of 15 field-goal attempts.

Outlook: Louisville basically returns its offensive and defensive lines. “That gives you a chance to win some games,” Satterfield said, “because you can win in the trenches.”

Quarterback Malik Cunningham returns for a fourth college season. He threw for 2,617 yards and 20 touchdowns last season.

All-ACC running back Hassan Hall (also a “special teams demon,” according to Lindy’s preseason guide) is back. All-ACC cornerback Kei’Trel Clark, lineman Yaya Diaby and linebacker C.J. Avery (led the team in tackles the last two seasons with 93 and 78, respectively), give the defense a foundation.,

Question marks: After 12 interceptions last season, has Cunningham learned the hard way about avoiding turnovers?

Can U of L replace wide receivers Tutu Atwell, Dez Fitzpatrick and Javian Hawkins, who ranked first (46), second (43) and fifth (16) in receptions last season?

Can U of L replace last season’s leading rusher, Hawkins (822 yards), and its two safeties?

Is there something about Australia and punters? Louisville’s punter figures to be newcomer Mark Vassett, a 25-year-old former construction worker in Melbourne. “He’s already bought a house, had a mortgage and sold it,” Satterfield said. “And he’s a freshman.”

Incidentally, in Louisville’s first five games last season, the opponent’s punter was from Australia.

Game of the year: Versus Ole Miss in Atlanta on Monday. National TV (ESPN), at center stage with little competition from other games on Labor Day night. It’s a chance to set a new tone and reintroduce the U of L football brand after a losing record last season.

“We’re willing to shock the world this year, man,” linebacker Monty Montgomery said of the opener. “I hope the world is ready.”

2021 Louisville football schedule

(Home games in all capital letters.)

Sept. 6: x-Mississippi, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Sept. 11: EASTERN KENTUCKY, 7 p.m. (ACC Network Extra)

Sept. 17: UCF, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Sept. 25: At Florida St., TBA (TBA)

Oct. 2: At Wake Forest, TBA (TBA)

Oct. 9: VIRGINIA, TBA (TBA)

Oct. 23: BOSTON COLLEGE, TBA (TBA)

Oct. 30: At North Carolina St., TBA (TBA)

Nov. 6: CLEMSON, TBA (TBA)

Nov. 13: SYRACUSE, TBA (TBA)

Nov. 18: At Duke, TBA (TBA)

Nov. 27: KENTUCKY, TBA (TBA)

x-Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic at Atlanta.

This story was originally published September 3, 2021 at 6:30 AM.

Jerry Tipton

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-472-4091

Jerry Tipton has covered Kentucky basketball beginning with the 1981-82 season to the present. He is a member of the United States Basketball Writers Association Hall of Fame. Support my work with a digital subscription