SEC football preview: Are Nick Saban and Alabama vulnerable in 2021?
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2021 College Football Preview
The Lexington Herald-Leader’s 2021 College Football Preview is being published in the print edition from Sunday, Aug. 29 through Friday, Sept. 3. Click below to view all the stories that have been published on Kentucky.com.
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There are those who proclaim Nick Saban the greatest college football coach ever.
That might actually be selling the Alabama head man short.
Consider:
▪ Since going 7-6 in his first season coaching the Crimson Tide in 2007, Saban has led Alabama to 13 straight seasons with double-digit wins.
In the 13 seasons prior to Saban, Alabama had 10 wins or more in a season only five times.
▪ Since losing to Tim Tebow and Florida in the 2008 SEC championship game, Saban and the Crimson Tide have won the last seven times they have reached the conference-title tilt.
▪ Since 2009, Saban has led Alabama to six national championships. Added to the 2003 title the coach claimed at LSU, Saban now has won it all seven times.
▪ Saban and Bama have won their last 31 games against SEC East foes.
(Quiz: Name the last SEC East team to beat Alabama?
Answer: South Carolina, 35-21, in Columbia on Oct. 9, 2010).
▪ Against head coaches who have served as his assistants — Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher, Mississippi’s Lane Kiffin, among them — Saban is 23-0.
Yet as we prepare for the 2021 SEC football season, some see signs that the Saban dynasty might be vulnerable.
Bama returns only three starters on offense. Its 11 total starters back from 2020 are the second fewest in the SEC.
This year, not one, not two but three SEC West teams — LSU, Mississippi and Mississippi State — will have open dates the week before they face the Crimson Tide (Alabama is also off the week before the LSU game).
Saban’s winning streak vs. the SEC East figures to get a stiff test Sept. 18 when the Crimson Tide face Florida in The Swamp. (With only 10, the Gators are the one team in the SEC with fewer returning starters than the Tide).
Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s Fisher — who worked as Saban’s offensive coordinator at LSU — seems to think this is the season when an ex-student finally vanquishes the mentor.
Asked earlier this year if it will take the retirement of Saban, 69, to open up the SEC West, Fisher colorfully demurred.
“We’re gonna beat his ass,” Fisher said.
Texas A&M will get Alabama in College Station on Oct. 9. The Aggies have 15 starters back from a team that went 9-1 and blitzed North Carolina 41-27 in the Orange Bowl last season.
Of course, even though Bama lost eight of the top 38 picks in the 2021 NFL Draft and 10 draft picks overall, the Crimson Tide roster is still stacked. Alabama’s past four recruiting classes have been ranked first, second, first and fifth in the country in the 24/7 Sports Composite Rankings.
That might help explain why, when a TV reporter relayed to Saban news of Fisher’s vow to whip the Alabama coach, the emperor of SEC football smirked.
“In golf?” Saban asked.
Tennessee’s comeuppance
When Kentucky lost 26 straight games to erstwhile border-rival Tennessee from 1985 through 2010, Wildcats fans chafed under the yoke of Big Orange rule.
Over the past decade-plus, the Rocky Toppers have discovered for themselves it’s not ample fun for your team to be on the wrong side of long, negative streaks.
Tennessee has lost 14 straight games to erstwhile border-rival Alabama.
The Volunteers have lost four straight and 15 of 16 vs. SEC East-rival Florida.
UT has dropped four straight and nine of 11 to SEC East and border-state foe Georgia.
On paper, it looks like 2021 will yield more of the same for Tennessee backers.
The Volunteers, breaking in yet another new coach in Josh Heupel, must play at Florida (Sept. 25) and Alabama (Oct. 23). UT also figures to be a decided underdog when SEC East favorite Georgia visits Neyland Stadium Nov. 13.
On the hot seat
Of 14 SEC head coaches, nine are in their first or second years at their respective schools. That limits the number of tenuous coaching situations in the Southeastern Conference in 2021.
But there are a couple that bear watching:
1.) Ed Orgeron, LSU. Yes, “Coach O” led the Tigers to an undefeated national championship only two seasons ago and is 45-14 overall as LSU head man.
But hot shot coordinators Joe Brady (offense) and Dave Aranda (defense) left after the title season to become, respectively, the OC with the NFL’s Carolina Panthers and head coach at Baylor.
Subsequently, LSU collapsed to 5-5 in 2020. That took a good bit of the national championship glow off of Orgeron.
The good news for Orgeron in 2021 is LSU has 16 returning starters and a reasonably favorable schedule.
2.) Mike Leach, Mississippi State. On the field, the ex-UK assistant had a rough first-go at MSU (4-7) last year. People who had claimed that SEC defenses would ground Leach’s Air Raid offense looked prescient.
Off the field, Leach just hasn’t seemed a comfortable “fit” at State.
Still, after firing previous head man Joe Moorhead (14-12) following his second year, Mississippi State can’t make “The Pirate” walk the plank after two seasons, too.
Can it?
The QB ‘waiver wire’
At least three quarterbacks who were playing in other conferences last season could have an impact in the SEC in 2021:
1.) Will Levis, Kentucky. Used primarily as a situational runner at Penn State, the 6-foot-3, 231-pound transfer quarterback has been tapped by new UK offensive coordinator Liam Coen as the guy to reinvigorate the Wildcats’ passing attack.
Levis has a howitzer for an arm, but he was dogged at Penn State by questions about his accuracy and touch. The Kentucky season likely hinges on how Levis has progressed in those areas.
2. Joe Milton, Tennessee. The 6-5, 243-pound Michigan transfer gives new UT coach Josh Heupel a pro-style QB. This is another quarterback whose accuracy has been questioned. Last year at Michigan, Milton completed only 56.7 percent (80-141) of his throws and threw as many interceptions as touchdowns (four each).
3. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee. The 6-4, 228-pound Virginia Tech transfer gives new UT Coach Josh Heupel a dual-threat QB. For his career, Hooker is a 63.1 percent passer and has thrown 22 TDs vs. only seven picks while also running for 1,045 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Hooker quarterbacked Virginia Tech against Kentucky in the 2019 Belk Bowl in Charlotte, completing 12 of 22 passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns and running for 50 yards in UK’s 37-30 come-from-behind victory.
The Sooners and the Longhorns
News this summer that Big 12 titans Oklahoma and Texas will be joining the Southeastern Conference no later than 2025 rocked the college football world.
Though it will not impact the 2021 season, if you have wondered how the Sooners and Longhorns have traditionally fared vs. the current SEC teams, the answer is quite well:
Oklahoma’s record vs. current SEC teams: Alabama 3-2-1; Arkansas 10-4-1; Auburn 2-0; Florida 2-1; Georgia 0-1; Kentucky 2-1; LSU 1-2; Mississippi 0-1; Mississippi State never played; Missouri 67-24-5; South Carolina never played; Tennessee 3-1; Texas A&M 19-12; Vanderbilt 2-0-1.
Texas’ record vs. current SEC teams: Alabama 7-1-1; Arkansas 56-22; Auburn 5-3; Florida 2-0-1; Georgia 3-1; Kentucky 1-0; LSU 9-8-1; Mississippi 6-2; Mississippi State 2-2; Missouri 18-6; South Carolina 0-1; Tennessee 2-1; Texas A&M 76-37-5; Vanderbilt 3-8-1.
Predictions
SEC East champion: Georgia.
SEC West champion: Texas A&M.
SEC championship game: Georgia defeats Texas A&M.
National championship game: Oklahoma defeats Georgia.
This story was originally published August 30, 2021 at 7:15 AM.
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