Hunting UK’s 2021 football schedule for must-wins, upset specials — and a bowl target

The University of Kentucky football team’s 2021 schedule includes eight Southeastern Conference games, four non-league contests, seven games at home and five on the road.

Here are some key points on the calendar that could determine the Cats’ success or failure:

Toughest opponent

On a schedule that’s much softer than last year’s 10-game SEC gauntlet, Georgia stands apart. Kirby Smart’s program is the only one in the Eastern Division against whom Mark Stoops doesn’t have a win. While four out of the last five games have been competitive, UK in the last two meetings couldn’t score a single touchdown. It was easy to point to last year’s track meets against Alabama and Florida in which Kentucky failed to keep up as the major reasons for Eddie Gran’s dismissal, but the relative ineptitude of the offense against Georgia in recent seasons was an even bigger culprit.

Must-win games

There will be tons of public talk about not looking past Louisiana Monroe (losers of 11 straight going back to 2019), but don’t get it twisted: defeating Missouri in week two of the season is top of mind for the program. Last year’s loss in Columbia kicked off a brutal month on the field — four losses in five weeks — and away from it; beloved assistant John Schlarman died two days before the Cats hosted Vanderbilt on Nov. 14. The Missouri trip was Schlarman’s first game away from the team since his cancer diagnosis in 2018. That 20-10 loss was winnable in the fourth quarter, but the Wildcats overall played like they’d been defeated before the first snap. Reclaiming dominion over the Tigers, whom Kentucky had beaten five straight years before last season, would get UK off on the right foot in SEC play and upset a parade of pundits who picked Mizzou over the Cats in the preseason standings.

Toughest road trip

Other than Georgia — that’s the true answer, given UK’s relative struggles against the Bulldogs regardless of where that game is played — the Cats’ toughest trip is at Mississippi State. The Halloween weekend tilt in Starkville will be Kentucky’s first visit since Mike Leach took the reins down there, and he’ll be itching for revenge against his former employer after an embarrassing 24-2 decision in Lexington last season.

Upset special

You heard it here first: Kentucky will beat LSU or Florida in Lexington this year. OK, the “or,” is something of a hedge, so I’ll lean toward the Tigers, against whom Kentucky earned one of its biggest victories in school history in 2007 — the last time they met at Kroger Field (then Commonwealth Stadium). LSU should have been better than its 5-5 record last year and a fourth-place finish in the Western Division, but the same could be said of UK and its 5-6 mark and same standing in the East. Both bring back double-digit starters and face quarterback questions coming into the season. LSU has the overall talent edge, but Kentucky (at least at home) may be a more reliable bet to play up to its potential.

Best visitors

Players fans will want to watch closely at Kroger Field this fall:

▪ Kentucky’s secondary should rank among the best in the league, but it doesn’t have a guy like Derek Stingley Jr.; the LSU star should be the first defensive back taken in the 2022 NFL Draft if he bounces back from an injury-plagued 2020. He was a monster during the Tigers’ 2019 title run, nabbing six interceptions and deflecting 21 passes as a true freshman.

▪ LSU also will trot out one of the best receivers in the league; Kayshon Boutte as a true freshman last year set the SEC single-game record with 308 yards and scored three touchdowns against Ole Miss.

▪ Cornerback Kalir Elam, whom Florida will bring to town a week before LSU, had an interception against Kentucky during his freshman season (2019) and could be a top-10 selection in April’s draft.

▪ Defensive tackle Zachary Carter also returns for Florida, looking for a first- or second-round grade after just missing those projections following his junior season.

▪ Former UK recruit Connor Bazelak of Missouri won’t be the best quarterback the Cats face this year, but he has a strong chance to be the best who comes to town; he threw for 201 yards and rushed for 42 yards against Kentucky last season.

The postseason

While the SEC often flirts with putting two teams in the College Football Playoff, it has only done that once in the event’s seven-year history. The next-best team plays in the Sugar Bowl. It’s farfetched to think Kentucky will end up in either of those games, but one of the other prestige CFP bowls — the Fiesta or Peach — could be in play if it puts together a near-flawless season. The most likely “best outcome” is that UK again finds itself in the Citrus Bowl, which has dibs on any SEC program not slotted into a CFP bowl. From there the SEC works with bowls to assign teams to one of the following six games: Outback Bowl (vs. Big Ten), Texas Bowl (vs. Big 12), Liberty Bowl (vs. Big 12), Music City Bowl (vs. Big Ten), Duke’s Mayo Bowl (vs. ACC) and Gator Bowl (vs. ACC). It won’t make a repeat trip to the Gator Bowl, it played in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl (then sponsored by Belk) in 2019 and has been a frequent participant in Nashville’s game.

Traditionally, the Outback Bowl is considered the best of that “equal” bowl group; I’m putting UK there against Michigan to conclude this season. The Cats win and Jim Harbaugh gets a pink slip on his way out of Florida. Michigan officials won’t have to pick up a phone to interview their first potential candidate.

2021 UK football schedule

(Home games in all capital letters)

Sept. 4: LOUISIANA MONROE, Noon (SEC Network)

Sept. 11: MISSOURI, 7:30 (SEC Network)

Sept. 18: CHATTANOOGA, Noon

Sept. 25: At South Carolina

Oct. 2: FLORIDA

Oct. 9: LSU

Oct. 16: At Georgia

Oct. 23: No game

Oct. 30: At Mississippi State

Nov. 6: TENNESSEE

Nov. 13: At Vanderbilt

Nov. 20: NEW MEXICO STATE

Nov. 27: At Louisville

This story was originally published August 25, 2021 at 11:30 AM.

Josh Moore

Lexington Herald-Leader

Josh Moore covers the University of Kentucky football team for the Lexington Herald-Leader, where he’s been employed since 2009. Moore, a Martin County native, graduated from UK with a B.A. in Integrated Strategic Communication and English in 2013. He’s a fan of the NBA, Power Rangers and Pokémon. Support my work with a digital subscription