A prediction for each game of Kentucky’s 2021 football season

Mark Stoops enters the 2021 college football season on the verge of making University of Kentucky sports history.

By making it to the end of his ninth year as top Cat, Stoops, 54, will tie Fran Curci for longest tenure as UK head man.

At 49-50, Stoops is 12 victories from passing Bear Bryant (60-23-5 from 1946 through 1953) as Kentucky’s winningest coach.

Alas, Stoops is also three defeats from moving past Bill Curry (26-52 from 1990 through 1996) as UK’s losingest coach.

At a program level, Stoops and troops can do something historically resonant in 2021.

Kentucky enters this season with an all-time record of 629-632-44. On a 13-game schedule (12 regular season contests plus a bowl), UK must finish at least 9-4 to regain the status of an all-time winning program.

Can Stoops and the Cats get that done? Below are my game-by-game predictions:

Louisiana at Monroe

Sept. 4 at Kroger Field

The hope: Kentucky has won its last seven games against “Group of Five” teams. ULM literally never had a lead in any game in 2020 while going 0-10.

The nope: Under Stoops, UK is only 5-3 in season openers and has tended to play sluggishly in the first game of seasons. But losing to the Warhawks in their first game under new head coach Terry Bowden (the former Auburn head man) would be unthinkable.

The scope: Kentucky 45, ULM 13.

Missouri

Sept. 11 at Kroger Field

The hope: UK has beaten Mizzou three straight at Kroger Field and five out of six overall. Yet the Wildcats should be keenly motivated after getting physically pushed around along both lines last year in Columbia.

The nope: In redshirt sophomore Connor Bazelak, Mizzou Coach Eli Drinkwitz comes to Lexington with one of the SEC’s better quarterbacks.

The scope: Kentucky 31, Missouri 26.

Chattanooga

Sept. 18 at Kroger Field

The hope: Under Stoops, Kentucky is 7-0 vs. FCS teams.

The nope: Given that Chattanooga in the 21st century is 0-10 against SEC foes, 0-14 vs. Power Five opponents and 0-22 vs. the FBS, there better not be a “nope.”

The scope: Kentucky 56, Chattanooga 10.

South Carolina

Sept. 25 at Columbia, S.C.

The hope: Stoops has had the Gamecocks’ number. As UK head man, he is 6-2 overall vs. South Carolina, including 2-2 at Williams-Brice Stadium.

The nope: New South Carolina Coach Shane Beamer knows he will have to turn the tables on UK if the Gamecocks are going to ascend in the SEC East. Might Kentucky get caught looking ahead to Florida?

The scope: Kentucky 27, South Carolina 21.

Florida

Oct. 2 at Kroger Field

The hope: The last two times the mighty Gators visited Kroger Field (2017 and 2019), they trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter each time.

The nope: Florida won both those games, just as it has won every contest against Kentucky but one (2018 in Gainesville) since 1986.

The scope: Florida 35, Kentucky 33.

LSU

Oct. 9 at Kroger Field

The hope: With LSU coming off a 5-5 season, having dealt with ample off-field controversy and having already lost presumptive starting quarterback Myles Brennan to an arm injury, who knows what you will get with Ed Orgeron’s Tigers?

The nope: Even without Brennan, LSU has 16 starters returning. Under Stoops, Kentucky is 1-9 vs. SEC West teams other than Mississippi State.

The scope: LSU 28, Kentucky 23.

Georgia

Oct. 16 at Athens, Ga.

The hope: Though Stoops is 0-8 vs. Georgia and Kentucky has lost 11 in a row to the Bulldogs overall, UK’s last victory in the series came in 2009 at Sanford Stadium.

The nope: Under Stoops, Kentucky has only played Georgia within single digits once, a 27-24 loss in 2016 in Lexington. UK has not even scored a touchdown vs. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs in the past two meetings. So if Will Levis, Wan’Dale Robinson, Christopher Rodriguez and Co. can just dent the Dawgs’ goal line, that would at least be something.

The scope: Georgia 38, Kentucky 16.

Mississippi State

Oct. 30 at Starkville, Miss.

The hope: As Kentucky showed while intercepting six passes vs. Mike Leach’s pass-happy attack in last season’s 24-2 Wildcats win over MSU, UK defensive coordinator Brad White has read the book on how (rush three, drop eight in pass protection) to control the Air Raid.

The nope: Leach will be out to prove a point after last season’s offensive debacle vs. UK. Stoops is 0-4 vs. State in Starkville and Kentucky has not won at Davis Wade Stadium since 2008.

The scope: Mississippi State 34, Kentucky 28.

Tennessee

Nov. 6 at Kroger Field

The hope: Kentucky’s 34-7 beat down of the Rocky Toppers last year in Neyland Stadium finally threw off the psychological hold the Big Orange has so long had over the Big Blue.

The nope: Even with the high-visibility attrition of key players, Tennessee still has offensive skill talent — and new Vols coach Josh Heupel knows how to put points on the board. Heupel will also have an extra week to prepare for UK with the Vols entering the game off an open week.

The scope: Kentucky 34, Tennessee 30.

Vanderbilt

Nov. 13 at Nashville, Tenn.

The hope: After surrendering 35 points and 407 yards to winless Vandy last year in a 38-35 Kentucky victory, the UK defense travels to Music City feeling it has a point to prove.

The nope: The Commodores have a robust 17 starters back, including an impressive young quarterback in Ken Seals. New Vandy Coach Clark Lea, the former Notre Dame defensive coordinator, seems to have instilled some hope back into the program.

The scope: Kentucky 41, Vanderbilt 21.

New Mexico State

Nov. 20 at Kroger Field

The hope: In five games vs. SEC teams since 2016, New Mexico State has given up an average of 46 points a contest. Kentucky hung 62 on the Aggies in a 62-42 shootout victory in 2016.

The nope: A Jerry Claiborne-era UK quarterback, NMSU Coach Doug Martin will motivate his team to perform well in the stadium where he played as a collegian.

The scope: Kentucky 55, New Mexico State 17.

Louisville

Nov. 27 at Cardinal Stadium

The hope: There is no home-field advantage in the Governor’s Cup rivalry. Kentucky is 6-5 vs. Louisville in Cardinal Stadium and has won two straight against the Cardinals in The Ville. Overall, UK has won three of the past four in the series.

The nope: Scott Satterfield’s first taste of the battle for the The Governor’s Cup in 2019 was bitter — a 45-13 shellacking at the hands of Lynn Bowden and Co. accompanied by a constant display of “L’s Down” from UK players and fans. For the U of L head man and his team, the coronavirus-delayed rematch will be a holy war.

The scope: Kentucky 28, Louisville 24.

Final record

Kentucky goes 8-4, 4-4 SEC, and earns a berth in the Outback Bowl opposite Penn State — the former team of UK quarterback Will Levis.

This story was originally published August 28, 2021 at 6:15 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription