Who’s going to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic? A closer look at the star-studded field.
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2020 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of the 2020 Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington.
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The Breeders’ Cup’s first trip to Keeneland in 2015 brought local horse racing fans a true delight: the final race for Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who didn’t disappoint in a dominant victory in the Classic.
This second time around for the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland won’t deliver any similar in-person spectacle for race fans, who won’t be permitted to attend the event due to the coronavirus pandemic, but — for those following at home — the field for Saturday’s $6 million Classic should be quite the sight.
On paper, it looks to be one of the best Classics in years, with older horses like Improbable, Maximum Security and Tom’s d’Etat matching up with 3-year-old stars Authentic and Tiz the Law. The title of 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner will, no doubt, be a hard-earned one.
1. Tacitus (20-1)
Why he can win: There’s always been buzz surrounding this Bill Mott-trained gray colt who won three consecutive races going into last year’s Kentucky Derby, where he went off as one of the favorites and ended up third. He looks the part of a star and has never finished off the board in six races at the 1 ¼-mile Classic distance. If he ever takes that next step, it could be enough to contend here.
Why he won’t win: Will that next step ever come? Tacitus was a beaten, odds-on favorite in his last two races. Since his Wood Memorial win heading into last year’s Derby, he’s won just one race in nine starts (six as the favorite). He’s consistently in the mix, but consistency isn’t enough against this stacked field. He just doesn’t seem to be on this level.
2. Tiz the Law (3-1)
Why he can win: Because he might be the most-talented horse in this field? Tiz the Law was a star all spring and summer, before finishing second to Authentic as one of the biggest Kentucky Derby favorites in years. He skipped the Preakness, so he comes to Lexington fresh. He’s been training wonderfully at Keeneland, and there’s reason to believe he simply didn’t like the Churchill Downs track on Derby Day.
Why he won’t win: Even if Tiz rediscovers his form from the Travers, he’s in for the race of his life Saturday against some older horses that have shown they can be just as fast. And that No. 2 post — for a horse that likes to run on the outside and stay clear — is far from optimal. He’ll need a good trip, and he’ll likely need the best run of his young career. A lot to ask.
3. By My Standards (10-1)
Why he can win: By My Standards took nine months off after an 11th-place run in last year’s Kentucky Derby. In 2020, he’s been a different animal, with four wins and two runners-up in six races. All four wins came with Gabriel Saez aboard, and he’ll be back in the irons Saturday. (The two defeats were with other jockeys). He’s looked great training at Churchill Downs.
Why he won’t win: His two 2020 defeats came at the hands of Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat, and he’ll face both Saturday. His speed numbers are respectable but a notch below the top older horses here. He’ll seemingly need to make a big jump to get past the rest of the field. His only previous start at the Classic distance was that 11th in the Derby. Seven of the 10 horses in this field have won at 1 ¼ miles.
4. Tom’s d’Etat (6-1)
Why he can win: He might be the best horse in this bunch. If not for a bad stumble at the break of the Whitney two months ago, Tom’s d’Etat could very well be the Classic favorite. Before that race — where he finished third behind Improbable and By My Standards — Tom’s d’Etat had won four straight, including victories over the two who beat him in the Whitney. The 7-year-old horse has been as consistent as they come for trainer Albert Stall Jr., who won the Classic with Blame — handing Zenyatta her only career loss — 10 years ago.
Why he won’t win: The Whitney is perfect proof that one bad step can end a race when the competition is as good as it is here. He’s also never won at the Classic distance, and — while super consistent — it might take his career best to finish first among this field. Can the old-timer do it in what’s likely to be his final race?
5. Title Ready (30-1)
Why he can win: When you see Dallas Stewart’s name next to a big long shot in a big race, it’s unwise to throw it out completely. The trainer has gained a reputation for pulling major upsets, and Title Ready is the horse for this Keeneland course with two wins in four starts at the track.
Why he won’t win: He’s the longest shot in the field for a reason. Title Ready has just one win — in an allowance race — in three starts this year, and his speed numbers lag behind the rest of this bunch. He’s never won a stakes race, and he’s never seen this level of company.
6. Higher Power (20-1)
Why he can win: He won the 2019 Pacific Classic by more than 5 lengths and finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year, so he’s proven he can compete at a high level. He finished second to Classic favorite Improbable, beaten a little more than 3 lengths, back in June, another sign that he’s not too far off the major contenders here.
Why he won’t win: Well, he hasn’t won since that Pacific Classic victory and is 0-for-4 in 2020. He ran a good race against Improbable, but he never appeared to be any real threat. His last two races were losses of more than 5 lengths to Maximum Security, who he’ll also see Saturday. Last year might have been his peak.
7. Global Campaign (20-1)
Why he can win: He comes here off two graded stakes wins, including a victory over Tacitus in the Grade 1 Woodward — his first start at the Classic distance — last time out. The 4-year-old son of Curlin appears to be at the top of his powers, and he’ll have Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano aboard for the first time Saturday.
Why he won’t win: He still doesn’t look to be on the level of the top older horses here and would need a pretty big jump this weekend to rise into that tier. In his last two victories, he’s employed more of a front-running style, and he’s likely to have plenty of talented company around him if he goes that route again.
8. Improbable (5-2)
Why he can win: He’s the deserved favorite, the clear winner of his last three starts — all Grade 1 races — with victories over the likes of Maximum Security, Tom’s d’Etat and By My Standards. As good as he was at 2 and 3 — and he was good — Improbable has been terrific as a 4-year-old. His running style should fit this race, and he’s been training beautifully. Bob Baffert exudes confidence. “I think he’ll run a huge race,” he said after Improbable’s final workout Sunday.
Why he won’t win: There’s always something that can go wrong. Improbable is known for being difficult around the starting gate. Any antics that take him off his game could be a major hindrance Saturday. With this field, there’s no margin for error, and — even if Improbable holds his recent form — a small step forward by one of his rivals would be enough to spell defeat.
9. Authentic (6-1)
Why he can win: He’s done little wrong so far, with just two defeats in seven starts against top company. Authentic, of course, won the Kentucky Derby at this distance two months ago. Bob Baffert said he looked “terrific” in his final workout, and he’s shown no ill effects from his Preakness duel with Swiss Skydiver.
Why he won’t win: Beating the best 3-year-olds is one thing. Beating older horses is another, and Authentic has at least three super talents in that category to contend with Saturday. He’s highly unlikely to get an uncontested lead and might need to use up a little more in the early going than he has in past starts. And, good as he’s been, the numbers suggest he’ll need a pretty big step forward to get on the same level as the older favorites here.
10. Maximum Security (7-2)
Why he can win: The horse who crossed the finish line first in last year’s Kentucky Derby had six straight graded stakes victories before a head-scratching loss to Improbable last time out. Bob Baffert says you can draw a line through that race, noting that Maximum Security was chasing the leaders — while Improbable settled in the back of the field — instead of employing his usual, front-running style.
Why he won’t win: Baffert says it’s a toss, but that loss to Improbable isn’t what you want to see heading into this race. And, yes, Maximum Security was mighty impressive all year, but long shots Tacitus and Higher Power are the only Classic contenders he’s defeated in 2020. The early going Saturday could be a bit scrambled as well.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
When: 5:18 p.m. Saturday
Where: Keeneland Race Course in Lexington
TV: NBC-18
Purse: $6 million (Grade 1)
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
For: 3-year-olds and up
Favorite: Improbable (5-2)
This story was originally published November 6, 2020 at 7:38 AM.
