Thoughts on new basketball player rankings (and where Kentucky stands in recruiting)
Rivals.com posted changes to all of its basketball recruiting rankings last week, joining 247Sports and ESPN with recent updates in this most unorthodox of high school seasons.
Some thoughts on the new rankings from a Kentucky perspective …
Daimion Collins’ rise
The 247Sports and Rivals networks have the most eyes in the gyms, and Kentucky signee Daimion Collins has established himself as an elite prospect on both boards, coming in at No. 10 overall in the updated rankings from both websites.
Collins — a 6-foot-9 power forward and arguably the most athletic post player in the 2021 class — has been described to the Herald-Leader by multiple scouts as a more offensively advanced version of current UK freshman Isaiah Jackson (at the same stage in their high school careers). Jackson came into this week tied for sixth nationally in blocked shots per game, despite playing just 20.1 minutes per game, and Collins has similar potential on the defensive end.
The recent addition of former five-star recruit Oscar Tshiebwe — a standout at West Virginia last season — should take some pressure off of Collins in the post, giving UK a true center for the new recruit to play off of.
“I actually think it bodes well for Daimion,” 247Sports’ Travis Branham told the Herald-Leader after the Tshiebwe commitment. “It puts him in that ‘4’ spot where he doesn’t have to bruise and battle as much down low.”
As of now, it’s looking like Collins will be the top-rated player in UK’s recruiting class. He’ll be projected as a one-and-done draft pick by the time next season begins, but coming in next to guys like Tshiebwe, Lance Ware and Jacob Toppin should alleviate the immediate pressure and make for an easier transition to the college game.
Nolan Hickman moving up
The first member of UK’s 2021 recruiting class, point guard Nolan Hickman, is now ranked No. 28 by ESPN, No. 30 by 247Sports, and No. 39 by Rivals.com. He’s moved up considerably since committing to Kentucky over the summer. At that time, Rivals ranked Hickman as the No. 76 player in the class, and his 247Sports composite ranking has jumped 19 spots — from No. 51 to No. 32 overall — since his commitment.
This isn’t any kind of “Kentucky boost” to his ranking. It’s just a sign of more people paying attention to Hickman’s game and continued improvement.
Shortly after his commitment, there were trusted names in the recruiting world saying privately that he might end up being the best college point guard in the 2021 class. That would be quite a feat among a group that features some pretty great playmakers.
The national recruiting rankings also put a heavy weight on a player’s long-term professional potential. Hickman isn’t seen as a one-and-done prospect or a sure-thing NBA point guard (yet), but those who have watched him the most think he’ll be a terrific college point guard and a player that can both make an immediate impact and stick around Lexington for multiple seasons. In other words, a much-needed addition for the Cats.
Other 2021 rankings notes
UK’s other early signee, Bryce Hopkins, is ranked between No. 25 and 38 by all of the major recruiting services. Hopkins is from the Chicago area, and there’s great doubt over whether the Illinois high school basketball season will be played at all, so scouts might not get to see much more of Hopkins until he actually suits up at UK next season.
▪ Top-ranked UK target Jaden Hardy has decided to opt out of the rest of his winter schedule, so his high school career is effectively over. He made quite an impression in the few games he played, and he’s now ranked No. 2 nationally by Rivals.com and ESPN, and No. 3 by 247Sports. Hardy has long been seen as a top-5ish prospect, but it’s always tough to move up when you’re already that highly ranked, so to jump big names like Paolo Banchero and Patrick Baldwin Jr. in the latest rankings was quite a feat. There are still lots of rumblings that Hardy — a 6-4 combo guard — will jump straight to the pros, but Kentucky, UCLA and others will continue to recruit him until he makes a decision.
▪ One of the biggest names of the fall was Brandin Podziemski, who put up huge scoring numbers in Wisconsin and landed scholarship offers from Kentucky and Kansas despite being ranked outside the national top 250. 247Sports inserted the 6-5 shooting guard (and lights-out three-point shooter) into its rankings at No. 72 overall, but ESPN didn’t put him in its top 100 and Rivals left him out of its top 150. There are still questions about whether he can score against elite, high-major competition and how his defensive skills will translate to that level, but there’s no doubt he can shoot the basketball. It’ll be interesting to see where Podziemski ends up in the final rankings, and, ultimately, where he plays his college ball.
Kentucky’s next big star?
The 2022 rankings have been updated, and the top of those lists didn’t change.
For 247Sports, Rivals.com and ESPN — across the board — it’s still Michigan State commitment Emoni Bates at No. 1 and uncommitted post player Jalen Duren at No. 2.
The chatter that Bates — seen as perhaps the best high school player in the country, regardless of class — will reclassify to 2021 has only intensified in recent weeks (even though he doesn’t turn 17 years old until next week). If that move happens, Duren, who turned 17 in mid-November, will be the clear No. 1 player in the 2022 class. And he could contend with Bates for that No. 1 spot, even if they both stay in the 2022 class.
Duren — a 6-10 post player from the Philadelphia area, now in his first season at Montverde (Fla.) Academy — has also been mentioned as a possible preps-to-pros player, but, if he does go to college, Kentucky might be the most likely destination.
That would be a tremendous addition for the Wildcats.
Duren looked terrific in nationally ranked No. 1 Montverde’s victory over No. 2 IMG Academy (Fla.) on ESPN over the weekend. He controls the paint, fights for position, rebounds the ball, scores in a variety of ways, possesses good passing instincts and vision, and he has developed into a smart and solid rim-protector. For as good as he looked in the win over IMG on Sunday night, Duren might have been even better in Montverde’s victory over No. 9 Wasatch Academy (Utah) on Monday evening. He’s a physically strong player and already looks the part of a college (or even NBA) post player.
Frankly, UK hasn’t had a player like Duren in years. And John Calipari hasn’t reeled in the nation’s consensus No. 1 recruit since Anthony Davis held that honor 10 years ago.
This is a recruitment that deserves the attention of UK fans.
Other 2022 rankings notes
Rivals.com boosted UK commitment Skyy Clark five spots to No. 8 in the 2022 class last week — his highest ranking among the national sites — and placed him one spot behind fellow point guard Jaden Bradley, who landed a Kentucky scholarship offer a few days earlier.
It won’t be a surprise if both players end up as teammates in a future UK backcourt, and the two point guards and their parents have said they would be happy with such an arrangement. Both players are also still open to the idea of reclassification to 2021, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if one (or both) of them are in college basketball next season. We’ll just have to wait and see. The 2022 class is typically viewed as a stronger group than 2021, and — if either Clark or Bradley does reclassify — you should probably expect to see them ranked in a similar spot in 2021, assuming they continue to progress at the same rate on the court.
▪ New UK assistant coach Jai Lucas helped land Daimion Collins (the No. 1 recruit in Texas for 2021) shortly after arriving in Lexington, and eyes will be on him again with the 2022 class. Lucas is expected to help Kentucky recruit Texas — he and his family have deep ties in the talent-rich state — and the top two players from the 2022 class are super-scoring shooting guard Keyonte George and defensive-minded combo guard Cason Wallace. Both are now ranked in the top 20 by Rivals.com and 247Sports, with Rivals elevating George four spots to No. 6 overall with last week’s update.
George told 247Sports over the weekend that Kentucky is one of the schools recruiting him the hardest, and a 247Sports analyst told the Herald-Leader a few weeks ago that UK would be the favorite for Wallace, if the Cats extended a scholarship offer. Sounds like Kentucky is in a good spot.
DJ Wagner and Kentucky
If the Wildcats can’t land Jalen Duren as part of their 2022 class, perhaps their next top-ranked commitment will come the following year.
Rivals.com was the final major recruiting service to post its 2023 rankings, and, surprise, New Jersey point guard DJ Wagner ended up in the No. 1 spot. Wagner was already No. 1 in the class, according to 247Sports and ESPN, and he’s long been seen as the best prospect in the 2023 class.
Wagner is the son of Dajuan Wagner and the grandson of Milt Wagner, the latest basketball star in a family with extensive ties to John Calipari, who brought Dajuan to Memphis as his first major recruit at that school. Milt, the former Louisville star, was on Calipari’s support staff at Memphis and later served as an assistant coach under Tony Barbee at UTEP.
Furthering the UK connection, Wagner is a former high school teammate of Lance Ware, who recently said he’s been leaning on Dajuan Wagner for advice. And DJ Wagner’s stepbrother is Kareem Watkins, a UK walk-on this season.
There are also bound to be preps-to-pros rumblings around Wagner, but if he goes to college, it would be a pretty big shock to see him play for any coach other than Calipari.
247Sports analyst Travis Branham broke down his game for the Herald-Leader recently.
“For a young sophomore, he’s just an elite prospect,” he said. “He’s a tremendous three-level scorer. He can make shots off the catch and pull, with range. He’s long. He’s athletic. He just has a knack for getting the ball in the hole. He’s great in transition. He’s smart, high IQ, and can really pass. And, obviously, with having all of that as just a sophomore — the kid has immense upside. His frame is still fairly thin. And given his genetics and who his dad is, you know he’s going to continue to grow. You know he’s going to continue to get stronger, get more athletic.
“He’s just a smart kid, smart player who is competitive and really skilled and can do everything at a high level, especially for being just a sophomore in high school.”
Wagner doesn’t even turn 18 years old until May 2023, so there’s still a long way to go in his development.
